300 or 3,000?
For pitchers, there are two benchmarks that seem to merit entry into the Hall of Fame: 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. Both are incredibly hard milestones to reach, but they are two that Mike Mussina is closing in on. Today, we’ll look at the standards behind both and discuss Mussina’s chances at getting them.
300 wins
Long the gold standard, this mark separates the mortals from the legends in baseball history. There are 23 members of the 300 win club and all of them–except for the not eligible Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens–are in Cooperstown. While often cited as an overrated statistic, 300 wins seems to be a stat that voters have on a mental checklist for entry into the Hall.
However, this is a milestone that is difficult for “Modern” pitchers, hurt by the five-man rotation and the rise of closers and pitch counts to reach. Only three truly modern pitchers–the aforementioned trio–have reached it. Randy Johnson is only seven wins away, but he’s going to have to pitch till he’s 45 to get there. And after Mussina at 264, the closest active pitchers to 300, with their current age:
Jamie Moyer 240 (45)
Kenny Rogers 213 (43)
Andy Pettitte 213 (36)
Pedro Martinez 212 (36)
None of those four pitchers are likely to make it, unless Moyer keeps pitching until he’s 53. Pettitte is pitching the best of the group right now, but would need around five more injury free seasons to make the list. It’s possible but unlikely. So, it’s very likely that there may only be four “modern” pitchers in the 300 win club.
What does this mean for Mike Mussina?
Frankly, it helps him. If he can make it, voters will see that he’s one of only five pitchers of his era to accomplish the feat. Being in such select company is the kind of thing that pushes a guy like Mussina over the top, even if he does lack the dominance we tend to like from our pitchers.
Can Mussina make it?
The fan is us says yes, the realist says no. Although it’s possible Mussina pulls a Moyer and keeps pitching forever, he’s going to likely need at least three years after this season to break the mark. That would push him to 43 years old. If he wins another 4 games this season to put him at 268, he’d need back-to-back 16 win seasons to get to 300. It just doesn’t seem likely.
Chances of making it: 10% Projected arrival date: 2011
3,000 Strikouts
Amazingly, this is actually a more exclusive club than 300 wins. There are only 16 pitchers who’ve passed the mark, and of the 10 eligible players, 9 are in the Hall (We’re keeping our fingers crossed Bert old buddy)
Here’s where things get complicated. Strikeouts are a more modern statistic, which can cause the perception of the statistic to be dulled (This will also happen to HR’s for hitters). For example, Frank Tannana struck out only 30 fewer hitters than Cy Young, even though he threw 3,200 fewer innings. Yes, you read that correctly.
What does this mean for Mussina?
Well, it’s tough to say. On the one hand, most of the active members of the club will get in to the Hall, but on the other, voters will be aware that more pitchers in today’s game can make it. For example, look at Javier Vazquez. He just turned 31 and will likely be at 2,000 strikeouts at the end of this season. He’s averaged 193 strikeouts every full season and and has made 32 or more starts every year of his career except for one. In all likelyhood, he’s going to cruise past 3,000 strikeouts at about the time he turns 37–say 2014, anout six seasons from now. So on the one hand, he’d seem to be a HOF lock.
The problem is, Vazquez current record is 123-122. He’s currently in his 11th season, and five of them, including this one, have been losing ones. He’s topped out at 16 wins, but his full season average is only 12. His ERA is a mere 5% better than league average and has been worse than average 5 of his 11 seasons. Vazquez is insanely durable, so pitching another 8-10 years is not out of the question. He may fan 3,000 hitters, but he also may finish with a losing record. Bylevyn had to wait to get in–and he likely will. Frankly, barring some huge career turnaround, there’s not a chance Vazquez makes it. None. Ever. But if he’s a member of the 3,000 K club, it’s going to knock the prestige of the group down a peg, which could hurt Mussina.
What are Mussina’s chances?
Better than his shot at 300. He needs another 247 strikeouts to make it. This season, ESPN projects him to finish with 126, which would leave him 211 short. While it’s close, there’s a decent chance he could knock that out in two full seasons. Not having to take a third season to do it could make the difference.
Chance of making it: 40% Projected arrival date: 2010
Last 5 posts by The Moose
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August 5th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I agree that if Mussina stays healthy and effective two more seasons, he’ll have a very good shot at 3000 K’s, as he’s still striking out over 6 per 9 IP. I’ve also been monitoring Javy Vazquez in looking at pitchers who could potentially pass Moose in career strikeouts, since I’d like to see Mussina hang in the top 20 all time once he gets there. Vazquez is like the Tanana of active pitchers, strikes out a lot of guys but basically a .500 pitcher. Great for him if he gets 3000Ks, but he’d still be a statistical outlier with no shot at the HOF, just like some of the guys who have 500 HR now. I believe the voters will have to scrutinize the players body of work more closely in the future because of the steroid/juiced ball era and the increasing popularity of sabermetrics instead of just going by the hard single-season and career counting numbers, and Moose’s career stands up well in context.
I don’t think 300 wins is a dead statistic yet. Who knows whether Santana, Sabathia, Oswalt et al are willing and able to pitch into their forties (I would have put Hudson on the list but he’s having TJ surgery now and that hurts his chances), so if Mussina can maintain his double-digit win seasons streak he can get there. After RJ, he and Pettitte are the only guys who have any shot at it within the next ten years, and I’d love to see them both go for it. With the injuries to the Yankees rotation, I *think* they will re-sign Mike for another year plus an option, and if he were able to have a decent year next year and rack up another 15 W, they’d almost have to pick up the option to let him go for 300 as a Yankee so that he’d go into the HOF with an NYY cap. He’s certainly looking rejuvenated these days, so we’ll see what happens.
August 5th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
SW-
Soon, I’ll be posting a topic relating to the hat Mussina would wear were he elected to the Hall
August 5th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I thought he was going to wear a Stanford hat?
August 5th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Interesting comparison between Mussina and Vazquez. I think having 3000 career K’s would be a great addition to an already impressive resume (which Mussina has), but it’s certainly not enough to guarantee a pitcher a spot in the HOF. Two other achievements often thrown around regarding HOF worthiness are a 20-win season and/or a no-hitter. Mussina’s former teammate Scott Erickson has both (20 wins in 1991 and a no-hitter in 1994), but the only way Erickson will ever get into the baseball HOF is if he pays the admission fee.
I do think it’s possible that Mussina could achieve both 3000 K’s and 300 wins for his career if he stays healthy and remains effective, and more importantly, if he chooses to continue pitching for another 2 or 3 years. I think that’s the biggest “if” of all. Very early in his career, Mussina speculated on whether or not he’d continue pitching past age 30. Then, as he got past 30, he speculated on whether or not he’d still be pitching after the age of 35. He has three kids, and he has talked about wanting to spend time with them while they’re still young. I think he will have some serious soul searching to do at the end of this season, particularly if the Yankees wish to re-sign him (and I think they will).
LOL at the Stanford cap!
August 5th, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Psst, Shelley, Scott Erickson has a world championship on his resume too.
On a tangential topic, another totally ludicrous claim against Mike is that he has losing postseason record. Um, hello, so do Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, and they’re considered first ballot HOFers.
Greg Maddux– 11-14, 3.34
Tom Glavine–14-16, 3.42
Mike Mussina–7-8, 3.42
Honestly I wouldn’t be *that* surprised if the word Stanford showed up on Mike’s HOF plaque, considering I’m sure no baseball player’s alma mater is mentioned on air or in print nearly as often as it is for Mike.
August 5th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
While it’s possible for a non-HOF caliber pitcher to hit one or the other ( most likely the 3000 Ks using the Vasquez example), I think the combination is a lock. Any pitcher who manages 300 and 3000 is sure thing and Moose might just get it.
I think Moose has 10 starts left and is at 90 Ks for the season. He think he will do better than 126, unless he regresses to his early season form when he was getting beatup by the Red Sox. During his good stretch he has been pitching over 6 innings and getting around 5 ks almost every start. I could see him with 140. Either way he will need 2 more seasons. He would get that easily in 2 seasons unless he pitches like August 2007 the rest of his career. If he stays healthy he can also get 300 with 2 more full seasons.
August 5th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
SW- The reason Maddux and Glavine don’t have the postseaon held against them are as follows:
Glavine: 2 Cy Youngs, Led the league in wins five times, 300 career wins and five 20 win seasons
Maddux: Oh come on, we all know Maddux is the best pitcher of this generation hands down (Sorry Roger)
There are a lot of factors that go into every player’s candidacy.
August 6th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
If he gets to 300 wins and 3000 strikeouts, then Mussina will make it to the Hall. Even if this was his last season (because of injury or some random thing), Mussina would still be a hall of famer. Right now he’s 264-151, which puts him at 113 games above .500. No pitcher who has finished their career with at least 100 more wins than losses has been kept out of the hall.
Only four 20-century pitchers have won more than 250 games and not been inducted: Blyleven (who should and probably will be elected), Tommy John, Jim Kaat, and Jack Morris. None of those guys won above 60% of their career decisions. Mussina has a winning perentage of .636, which is great even for a hall of famer.
September 18th, 2008 at 2:28 am
[...] three days rest. Vazquez was the losing pitcher against Moose back on April 24th. Patrick has written pretty extensively about Vazquez before. He has electic stuff, strikeouts out a ton of guys and when he puts it [...]
September 19th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Here’s an insightful link about 300 game winners I found a while back: http://seamheads.com/blog/2008/03/07/are-300-game-winners-becoming-extinct/
They have two intriguing charts comparing the win rates of 300 game winners against the current crop of 200 game winners, the first by season and the second by age. Mike didn’t get to start his career as early as most of the 300 W club, but his wins per season are higher than most of the contemporary era 300 game winners.