The Mike Mussina Hall of Fame Page

I stumbled across a fun tool on espn.com today.  It’s called Career Assessments and allows you to project the rest of a player’s career.  Now this is obviously meaningless because Mussina retired.  But if you are very bored, as I was, you can project Mussina’s career had he chosen to make a run at 300 wins.  James system allows you to find these things out.  From espn.com:

Bill James invented Career Assessments as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less than 1.5 seasons, and it is determined using the player’s age on June 30 of the previous year. If the player is a catcher, his remaining seasons are multiplied by 0.7. Using the established norms and years remaining, the final total is projected, and the chance to reach that total can be derived. No player can have more than a 97-percent chance to reach any goal.

I input Mussina’s numbers in the projection machine, waited for it spin up and it spit out some interesting information. 

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 1.5 more years, at an average of 14.5 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 291 for his career. He has a 22 percent chance to reach 300.

If Mussina had chose to stay and pursue 300 victories, his chances stood at an unencouraging 1 in 4.  But then again what are the chances of a 39 year old pitcher winning 20 games? 

You can see that projection here or check out his chances for 3,000 strikeouts.  Try not to get sucked into the projection machine’s vortex trying to figure out Joba’s chances at 300 wins or Jeter’s chances at 4000 hits.

September 23rd, 2009 | Tags: Bill James, Derek Jeter, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina | Category: Analysis, Random Fun, Statistics | Leave a comment

We spent a lot of time on this site analyzing Mike Mussina’s career, and if he’d done enough to make Cooperstown. Through it all, while we believe he’s worthy of the honor now, we knew that the voters might have needed another year or two; another twenty wins; another 200 strikeouts.

We wondered if Mussina made the right decision to retire.

And after watching the Yankees pound the Red Sox and John Smoltz Thursday night, here’s what I can say: I’m glad that wasn’t Mike Mussina.

This is not about bashing John Smoltz. I happen to think he’s a Hall of Famer, and he, like all athletes, has a right to end his career when he chooses. And Smoltz was coming off of shoulder surgery.

But that doesn’t change the reality of the results. Smoltz has been awful for the Red Sox. He’s got an 8.23 ERA and left-handed hitters are hitting nearly .450 against him.

Simply put, he held on one year too long.

As a Yankees fan, I never got to see much of Smoltz except in the World Series in 1996 and 1999. But he was a phenominal pitcher. And, even though I wanted the Yankees to win Thursday, I couldn’t help but think that a guy like Smoltz deserved better. He deserved to go out pitching well. Not getting battered around in the third inning. It’s possible that, for his final confrontation on the mound, John Smoltz had to issue an intentional walk to load the bases after giving up five hits in the inning. It’s simply not how he should be remembered.

Mike Mussina ended his career with 16 straight scoreless innings. The final batter he faced was the eventual MVP of the American League, Dustin Pedroia. Mussina got a double play ground out.

While we may always wonder what might have been had Mussina hung on for another two or three seasons–especially if he doesn’t make the Hall–part of me is glad his career ended the way it did. With smiles and handshakes. With a celebration.

That same part of me wishes John Smoltz could get one final return to the mound, to finish his career in a manner more fitting a player of his stature. I don’t know if he’ll get that chance, but we can always hope.

As for Mike Mussina? Maybe, once again, he proved he knows more than we do.

August 8th, 2009 | Category: News | Comments (1)

Call me a hater if you must, but when I saw that Mike Mussina was at Old-Timers day at Yankee Stadium, I was a little disappointed.

I know that OTD is supposed to be a celebration of Yankees from the past, and that’s  the problem. Mike Mussina’s not from the “past”. He’s a guy who could probably pitch for the Yankees tomorrow if things went haywire. Rigt now, he’d probably be the third best starter on the team.

I’m not trying to be a fly in the ointment. I know that on some level, this is what happens, because the further we get from the glory years, the fewer options there are to bring back players who had an impact on the franchise. Many of them are gone.

I’m not blaming Mussina for this. If I were a player and I were asked back, I’d go. I just wish they hadn’t asked.

To have Mussina there seems odd. We’ve pointed out he was the last Yankee to win a World Series game. But do you realize that he was the last Yankee pitcher to beat the Red Sox? I can’t tell if that’s funny or depressing.

And now he’s an Old-Timer? I don’t like it.

This doesn’t have anything to do with talent. Not every player who comes back is a Hall of Famer. I’ve seen Kevin Maas at a recent game. But part of the fun off bringing a guy like Maas back is that when you see him, you think “Man, Kevin Maas. Those first 30 games in 1990 were something! What’s he been up to?” In a sense, his obscurity is the reason he’s back. He’s the answer to a trivia question, a quirky piece of nostalgia in an otherwise dark era. Think Shane Spencer, sans the rings. If you were a Yankees fan in the early 90’s, for a few weeks, you loved Maas, and having him back there is an excuse to think back to when he was the next big thing.

The problem is, we haven’t been given a chance to appreciate Mussina in that way. Nine months ago, we weren’t even sure he was retired. Now we’re supposed to look back with fondness? It’s like the saying goes “How can I miss you if you don’t go away?”

July 20th, 2009 | Category: News | Leave a comment

Considering that Mussina retired 8 months ago is it too much to hope that his official website might be updated to reflect this? The site’s rather well designed front page still reads:

As a starting pitcher with the New York Yankees, “Moose” has proven himself to be a committed and dedicated team leader.  With over 235 career victories, 6 Gold Gloves, Mike is one of today’s biggest stars.

Despite that fact that it does say “over 235 career victories” this obviously needs a bit of fixing.  In particular we demand full recognization for the gold glove Mussina won last year.

Patrick and I will glady volunteer to update and maintain the official Mike Mussina site if anyone cares to ask us.

In other news the State of Pennsylvania honored Mussina with a resolution on June 3rd.  Thanks to reader Jenny for this neat little link.  Check out the resolution for a great history of Mussina’s high school sporting accomplishments and some interesting facts about his life in PA.

Lastly, for some reason I can’t decipher, Mike Mussina’s baseball-reference page has not been updated to reflect his most similiar players post-2008.  The list is the same as it was when 2008 began.  It includes pitchers (with the exception of Jim Palmer) who won around 250 games and therefore were similar to Moose after 2007.  Now the list is still pretty nice as it includes five hall of famers in the top nine and a very strong candidate in Curt Schilling at number 3.  However it also lists David Wells at number 2, despite Mussina’s 31 career win advantage.

Jack Morris and Andy Pettitte, two boderline Hall of Fame candidates also make the list.  I argued for Morris in December and his vote percantage this year was a decent 44% good enough for 6th (only 0.5% behind Lee Smith).  Petitte is still writing his resume at 37 with 222 career wins and a nice bounce-back year (7-3 104ERA+)  Petitte has averaged 17 wins per season during his career and even giving him an age-reduced average of 14-15 could be at 260+ wins in two and half more years.  Throw in the fact that’s he a lefty and there’s no reason he can’t play beyond 2011 if he stays healthy and wants to play (think Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers or Randy Johnson who only had 200 wins at Petitte’s age!).  If Andy does that he’s almost certainly Cooperstown bound with 275 or more wins.  Now of course a lot of that depends on his effectiveness and who he’s playing for as the Yankees are unlikely to continue to employee him for many years to come.  I could certainly see a trip to LA and Mr. Torre in his future.  But enough about Andy.

The point here is that with a little bit of consistency and legacy from Andy Petitte, Mike Mussina could have 8 of his most 10 similiar pitchers elected to the hall of fame (though obviously only 6 or 7 might be in the hall before him).

Now consider that this is of course actually based on Mike Mussina of 2007, before he won 20 games in 2008.  If and when baseball-reference updates Mussina’s similarity scores, we’ll probably see 7 or 8 present or inevitable hall of famers included.

June 21st, 2009 | Tags: Andy Petitte, Curt Schilling, Jack Morris, Mike Mussina | Category: Analysis, Comparisons, Hall of Fame, Statistics | Leave a comment

We can all look forward to the winter of 2013 when Mussina will again make headlines.  The hall of fame class of 2014 will be debated and analized to a great extent.   The elections will be made public during the first week of Janaury 2014.  It’s going to be an amazing contending class.  The headliners will be:

Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Jim Edmonds, Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez, Kenny Rogers, Ray Durham, Moises Alou, Eric Gagne and Hideo Nomo

That list does not include Tom Glavine and John Smoltz who haven’t played this year because of injury and therefore may also be eligible for election.  (Full Disclosure:  I also did not list Richie Sexson as a headliner.  This is despite his potential claim to be the tallest member of the baseball hall of fame)

Maddux and Thomas are in, in 2014 without question. It’s unlikely Mussina will be first ballot guy with all that other competition.  Clear arguments could be made that Pedro and Glavine are also first ballot hall of famer members. Throw in all the players from the previous few years (2013 will be another amazing year with the likes of Clemens, Bonds, Biggio, Sosa, Piazza, Lofton and Julio Franco) and you can see how difficult it will be to get 75%.

The voters haven’t elected 3 players at the same time since 1999 (Ryan, Brett and Yount).  Four players haven’t been elected together since 1947 (Carl Hubbell, Frankie Frisch, Mickey Cochrane and Lefty Grove).

Mike Mussina is not going into the hall of fame in 2014.  He’ll get there, but he’ll have to wait.  It would help if Glavine somehow manages to pitch for the Braves this year.  Or if Pedro realizes he’s not a 10 million dollar a year pitcher any more and decides to sign with Florida.

Thank you again for visiting mussinahof.com.  Browse at your pleasure.  We’ll see you again soon, in Cooperstown…someday.

May 8th, 2009 | Tags: Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Pedro Martinez, Richie Sexton, Tom Glavine | Category: Hall of Fame, News | Comments (1)

Dawson and Blyleven came very close.  Blyleven’s likely election in two or three years will help Mussina tremendously.  I was correct back in July when I took at look at this year’s ballot.  I don’t know about the coming years though.  Time will tell.

Here’s an early look at Henderson’s HOF plaque.

This is the 2009 vote totals. The Tim Raines number is an embaressment.

Analysis coming tomorrow if I can stir Pat to help.

January 13th, 2009 | Tags: Andre Dawson, Baseball Hall of Fame, Burt Blyleven, Jim Rice, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines | Category: News | Comments (2)

Happy 2009 Moose fans!

RealClearSports has named Mike Mussina one of its most under-told stories of the year. The writer acknowledges Moose’s fantastic 2008 season and says he’s a sure-fire hall of famer.  But the focus of the article is how amazing Moose’s career has been and how remarkable his retirement was (coming after arguably his best season):

Mussina, on the other hand, never had to fight drug addiction. Nor has he ever struggled to remember anything — let alone an entire year. He’s not amazing because he’s had to fight back from enormous adversity of his own making. He’s amazing for the opposite reason. He’s amazing because his potential isn’t limited by a baseball field. (ie How many athletes other than Mussina would feel comfortable being featured alongside a president in a documentary about crossword puzzles?)

We could not agree more.  Read the whole thing.

January 5th, 2009 | Tags: 2008, Mike Mussina, retirement | Category: News | Comments (1)

Merry Christmas Moose fans.  And a very happy belated birthday to Mr. Mussina.  Our beloved future hall of famer turned 40 back on the 8th of December (soon to be a national holiday on par with the Yule-tide festival now in full swing).

Have a safe and festive holiday season from mussinahof.com

December 25th, 2008 | Tags: Christmas, Mike Mussina | Category: Random Fun | Leave a comment

Greg Maddux will announce his retirement from professional baseball on Monday.  This means he’ll be on the same ballot as Mussina in 2014.  This is another way of saying Mussina’s chances of being a first ballot guy, which were small anyway, just got a whole lot smaller.

Voters don’t like to vote for more then two or three guys at a time.  And rarely do you see more then two players elected in the same year.  In fact it’s usually just 1 at a time, as seen the past year with Bruce Sutter.

But well done to Maddux. He richly deserves a spot in Cooperstown and should tally one of the highest voting totals in Hall of Fame history.

December 6th, 2008 | Tags: Brain Cashman, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina | Category: News | Comments (2)

Yesterday we started our preview of this year’s Hall of Fame elections and how that relates to Mussina.   For today I’m going to cover Jack Morris, whose inclusion on my ballot, has already made me insane in the the eyes of some.  According to baseball-reference Morris is actually Mussina’s 7th most similar pitcher over the course of their entire careers.

Jack Morris had the most wins of any pitcher of the 1980s; a decade during which he was a five time all-star (starting three times).  This is point number one and it can not be forgotten.  During that decade he also led baseball in starts, innings, strikeouts and complete games.  And he continued his excellence into the early nineties. For 14 consecutive years his team called on him to be the team’s opening day starter; that’s a baseball record.

From 1979 to 1988 he never won fewer then 14 games, breaking the magical 20-win total three times.  During his career he won 15 or more games 13 times (2 more then our beloved Moose).  He accumulated five Top 5 Cy Young finishes and probably out pitched 1983’s winner La Marr Hoyt (like Moose in ‘01 Morris had a much better stat line but a poorer W/L record).

For his career Morris allowed less then a hit/ip, finished 31st all-time in strikeouts (just 22 shy of 2500), totaled 254 wins and recorded a staggering 175 complete games in an age when the stat was slowly dying.

And of course, as is often mentioned first when discussing Jack Morris, he was an amazing postseason pitcher for the Detriot Tigers in 1984 and the Minnesota Twins in 1991.  In both series Morris won 2 of the his teams four games including the deciding one.  In both series he posted sub-2.00 ERAs and was the story of the series (sorry Brave fans).  Unfortunetly the story did not hold when Morris joined the Toronto Blue Jays in 1992.   He lost both Series starts, but the Blue Jays won the title anyway (again apologies to any Atlanta fans out there, we know this still hurts).  In total Jack Morris owns four World Championship rings, an impressive feat on any Hall of Fame candidates resume.

The knocks against Morris have weight.  His career ERA was 3.90.  That’s only 5% better then the league over the same span.  Mike Mussina’s career ERA is 23% better.  I don’t think this disqualifies him because Morris’s ERA skyrocketed because of terrible years in 1989 (when he had arm trouble), 1993 and 1994 (also his last).  From 79-88 Morris’ ERA was at or, more often, well above the league average.  (The arguement that the former hitter’s pinball machine known as the old Tiger Stadium hurt Morris does not hold water.  His career road and home ERA’s are exactly the same - yeah, strange I know.)

Jack Morris is borderline.  His gray ink score is only 193 (185 is avg for a HOF).  But was he one of the best players during his era?  There’s no question he was.  He’s got the stat line and credentials for Cooperstown.  Jack Morris should be in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

December 3rd, 2008 | Tags: Atlanta Braves, Baseball Hall of Fame, Detroit Tigers, Jack Morris, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays | Category: Hall of Fame | Comments (2)

The 2009 Hall of Fame ballot is listed HERE (with fan totals so far).  Over the next month we’ll take a look at who we would be voting for, what the status of the players who are similiar to Mussina is and what the whole voting scenario means for Mussina come 2014.

I have maintained since last January that only 5 players would get my vote come this year’s ballot.  They were:

Rickey Henderson
Jack Morris
Jim Rice
Bert Blyleven
and Alan Trammell

I was very tempted to vote for Lee Smith, but could not do it.  I did however find myself drawn to the great Dale Murphy, who like Mussina played the game as a gentleman and because of that probably never got the recognition he deserved. I have my reasons for not voting for Andre Dawson which I’ll cover in another post, but they mainly deal with his career OBP and OPS.

The higher Blyleven goes the better the case of Mussina.  I think Pat would agree that their cases are near mirror images of each other.  We’ve already covered Blyleven’s chances of reaching the HOF.  As we said he only needs 14% more of the vote this year to make it in.  Here’s hoping he crosses the threshold.  (Jim Rice only needs a handful of votes to get to 75%, in this, his final year on the ballot.)

We’ll cover these HOF voting trends, players cases and toss in some predictions detail in the coming month. The 2009 inductees into the Baseball Hall of Fame are announced in the first week of January 2009.

December 2nd, 2008 | Tags: Alan Trammell, Andre Dawson, Berty Blyleven, Dale Murphy, Hall of Fame, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Mike Mussina, Rickey Henderson | Category: Hall of Fame | Comments (3)

While everyone debates Mussina’s HOF resume (which we’ve done a thousand times and proven conclusive) I thought we’d enter that netherworld that exists for today’s journalism. That’s right, speculation and conjecture passed off as news.

Now that Mike Mussina is no longer a professional baseball player, what will he do with his life?

- He’ll coach locally. Mussina is a smart guy, there’s plenty he could pass on to another generation of hurlers. I’m sure the local Montoursville High School or any of the nearby colleges would welcome his assistance as a part-time or full-time coach. Moose already runs a training camp during the summer months. It’s certainly conceivable he’ll expand that now.

- He’ll coach professionally. Let’s face it Mussina would probably make an excellent pitching coach. If there’s one thing the teams in MLB need its better pitching. It’s not a stretch to think one of them would want Mussina advising their pitchers. However this is unlikely since we know Mussina wants to stay close to home.

- He’ll become a broadcaster. Again this is probably a good fit, but unlikely. Where would he even go? YES already has David Cone and Al Lieter and I’m pretty sure ESPN has already signed John Smoltz and Curt Schilling. Maybe FOX would with the understanding that he would only do the occasional game of the week and the postseason. Can you imagine an October with Mussina every year? And no more Tim McCarver to boot!

- He’ll get fat. 98% of today’s players retire and do nothing. They don’t have too, they are millionaires. Yes, some blow it like Mike Vick, but most are good stewards of the fortune we’ve handed them. Mussina might not want to do anything but sit around and do crosswords and eat McDonald’s French Fries.

- He’ll write. I think this is the dark horse possibility. Mussina is cagy; a cranky, smart conundrum. It’s possible that writing about baseball (or anything) becomes his outlet. Maybe he’ll design crossword puzzles. Maybe he’ll write for his Official Hall of Fame campaign site. Who knows?

- He’ll do whatever the hell he wants and we won’t know about it. 10 will get you 1 that this is Mussina’s future. One of the saddest things about his retirement is that it will likely be the last time we ever hear from him. Mussina is not a celebrity. He’s not a sought after interview. He doesn’t even like interviews. Whatever he chooses to do, he’ll keep under the radar and private about it.  The best we as fans have to hope for is an occasional appearance at Yankee old-timer days. And even that day, while it’s great to see them take the field, becomes a sad rendition by once flawless performers. Mike Mussina may very well just fade away. And he’d probably like it that way.

November 28th, 2008 | Tags: Al Lieter, David Cone, Mike Mussina, New York Yankees, Tim McCarver, YES | Category: Analysis | Comments (2)

It’s over. Mike Mussina will never pitch in the Major Leagues again. His retirement still comes as a bit of a surprise to me. I think, looking back, that I was made cynical by most of today’s athletes. What I mean is that, star athletes do not retire when they still have many good years left. Usually they are taken kicking and screaming from the game they’ve loved since childhood as the last vestiges of their abilities are lost to time.

From time to time we see star athletes retire after reaching the pinnacle of his sport (John Elway being the all too obvious and overused example). But very rarely does an athlete retire without a championship when they can still play. That is what Mike Mussina did last Thursday, one week after being voted the 6th best pitcher in the American League.

The only comparison that comes to mind is Barry Sanders. Like Sanders, Mussina stood only 30 wins, 2 strong seasons away from the immortality of 300 wins. In 1999 the 30-year-old Sanders retired from professional football. He stood only 1,457 yards shy of Walter Payton’s all-time rushing record. Sanders averaged 1,526 yards rushing per season in his 10 year career. Like Sanders, Mussina is an introvert more interested in preparing for his next opponent then answering repetitive questions from an unappreciative media.

And like Sanders I suspect that perhaps, the game itself didn’t mean as much to Mussina as his life outside of it. This is not something to be frowned upon. We are conditioned to believe only in the athlete who gives every last ounce of his existence for his sport. We want him to die out there, because, honestly, when they do retire it is as they have passed away. Those of us who have followed Mussina year in and year will never see him grace the field of a live game again. In the sense that we knew Mike Mussina he is no more. But the Mike Mussina that matters, the person, will live on happy and content with his life and family. That should give us all comfort and only increase our respect for the man.

November 24th, 2008 | Tags: Barry Sanders, Mike Mussina | Category: Analysis | Comments (1)

According to CBSsportsline.com, Mussina knew all year he was going to retire and had made up his mind in January of this year.

How do we feel about the Moose pulling one over on us? I can’t speak for Ryan, but to me, this once again fits Mussina’s personality perfectly. He didn’t want every start to be predicated with “This is the last time Mike Mussina will pitch in…” He didn’t want to make the season about him and his retirement. He just wanted to go out there and pitch, without all the fanfare. And even though we got duped, so to speak, I’m cool with it.

Thoughts?

November 21st, 2008 | Category: News | Comments (1)

Well my friends, the day has arrived. The day we all feared, the day we knew was coming, even if we didn’t want to adimt it.

Mike Mussina has reitred. It’s all over. From ESPN.com, as reported by Foxsports.com originally:

“As expected, New York Yankees pitcher Mike Mussina has decided to retire, according to a baseball source with knowledge of the situation. Mussina informed the Yankees last week he would give them a decision by the end of this week.”

It’s sad, but at the same time, it’s something I had predicted when the season ended. Look, if we’ve been following Mussina, we know that he’s not like all these other glory-hunting, money-hungry athletes. He’s not going to continue to stick around just to protect his “legacy” or to get to some imaginary magic number of wins that some antiquated writer thinks he needs to get into the Hall. He’s a family man first, and he chose to be with his family. We respect that.

And let’s be honest. The Yankees had room for him in their rotation this year, what with Phil Hughes struggling and Joba Chamberlain being moved around like so much chattle. But this year only. Next season? You’d likely have Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain and the two free agents the Yankees are likely to sign in this offseason. And that’s not even discussing the remote possibility of Ian Kennedy. If Mussina endured another slow start to 2010 like he did this season, there’d be no excuse to keep him in the rotation. And Mussina’s not going to want to go out like that.

It’s like he said, would his legacy be any different if he hung on for another 2-3 years and tacked on 30 more wins? Not really. He’d likely still be without a Cy Young, or World Series, which are the two biggest black marks on his resume. Mussina has always said you have to measure a pitcher by his prime, and Moose is past that. He’d just have 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, but he’d be like so many others who hung too long. Would he be in the Hall? Yes. Would he have left the game on his own terms? No. Which do you think is more important to him?

So where does this leave Moose for the Hall? Two days ago, the New York Times asked 40 HOF voters if they’d vote for him. Here are the results:

17 said yes
8 said no
15 said maybe

So that’s a solid 40% yes, and if we were to split the maybe’s to 50-50, you’d be at about 60%, which is encouraging. Also, today Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney and Keith Law of ESPN all said they’d vote for them. Of those four, I know that Gammons is a BWAA voter, so that’s enocuraging.

Look, we all know he’s not a first ballot guy. But, there seems to be a significant amount of support for our boy. And that’s a good thing.

As always, we encourage you to leave your thoughts

November 19th, 2008 | Category: News | Comments (8)

…At least that’s what the voting for this year’s AL MVP would have us believe.  Mussina recieved 3 points for MVP, 1 more then he did for Cy Young.  This is because voters can list 10 people for MVP and only 3 for Cy Young.

Moose finished 19th in the voting, his best finish ever (insert tongue into check).  It was the third time Mussina recieved MVP love;  he previously finished 21st and then 20th in 1992 and 1994 respectively.

Feel free to discuss herein the (in)signifance of said event.

My 2 cents:  Looks good on the resume; Recieved MVP votes in three season.  When Mussina comes up on the ballot for the Hall in 5 to 8 years time, no one will remember where he finished.

Patrick’s two cents: Anyone else find the concept of 10th place votes (and thus 19th place finishes) idiotic? If we’re being honest with ourselves, Top 5 should do it. Really, what does an 8th place vote even mean? Can we quantify the difference between an 8th place vote and two tenth place votes? Imagine a world in which that was the difference between the two players. This is why we have 45 Top 10 charts in music. My new system: You vote for one guy. Ye with the most votes wins. End of discussion.

Also: This notion of “Only players on playoff teams have true value. It’s sort of saying, if you don’t work for the big company, being good at your job is pointless, because if you’re not one of the best, there’s no difference between very good and awful. If you’re on a professional baseball team and playing, it means that you’re better than the other option the team has, which means you have value. End of discussion.

(Also idiotic: 1) The different rules in the AL and NL. Pick one set and go with it. There’s a reason no other league has a dumb rule like that 2) College Football overtime. Great, both teams “get a chance at winning.” All we have to do is remove 90% of the strategy and playcalling and sit through 17 missed field goals to get it. 3) Overtime losses in hockey. Phenominal, you lost. Now here’s your reward. There’s a reason no other sport on the planet has this dumb rule either.)

November 19th, 2008 | Tags: AL MVP, Baseball Hall of Fame, Mike Mussina | Category: News, Random Fun | Comments (1)

I’m writing this post in response to a comment that a reader made about trusting the writers to get Mussina into the Hall of Fame. This is not a question of “Does Mussina deserve the Hall?” but “Will people vote for him”. They are seperate questions.

I think, this year especially, Mussina’s taken a lot of borderline candidates and put them over on his side. Jonah Keri, Buster Olney and Rob Neyer of ESPN have all expressed sentiment that he’s made an excellent case for himself. Here are a few reasons why I believe he’ll get ni

1) Voters look at wins. And 300 wins, which used to be the watermark for pitchers, is virtually unattainable now.

Greg Maddux cruised over the mark, but he’s Greg Maddux. Roger Clemens? Let’s not go there. As for Tom Glavine, he barely cleared the mark at 305. Randy Johnson is slowly inching his way there, but his injury history and age make it a question mark.

After that, look at the list below Mussina at 270. Jamie Moyer is at 246 and he’s 45. David Wells capped out at 239 at age 44. Kenny Rogers is at 219 and he’s 43. Schilling is likely to hang it up at 216. Andy Pettitte is at 215, but he’s 35, coming off a bad season. Pedro is at 214, but he’d be fortunate to get to 240 with his health. Smoltz is at 210, but even accounting for his years as a closer, he wouldn’t likely be above 260 now.

The point is, after Johnson, no-one else other than Mussina is going to get 300 wins for at least 10 years. Voters will recognize that. Will it be this written out “275 is the new 300?” No, but it will be an unspoken idea. Overrated or no, wins are still the one of first things voters will look at when it comes to HOF consideration. (Note to people bringing up Blylevyn–he’ll be in in two years)

2) Mussina’s recent season has made people take notice of his entire career in a whole new light.

For the lesson here we look no further than Aerosmith. When they dropped their 1986 album “Pump” and rocked out with “Janie’s Got a Gun”, they shot to #1. But their older stuff was also more popular because people who hadn’t bothered to think about them before now said “Hey, Aerosmith kind of rocks! What else have they done?” Then they got to be in the 2nd greatest video game of all time.

The point is, Mussina’s reinvention this season had people taking notice, and by extension, they’ve started looking at his entire career. And in doing so, been reminded of how good of a pitcher he’s been his whole career.

3) People are cynical and wary

In this era of power guys magically losing all their power overnight, one-year wonders (We’re looking at you on that one, Brady Anderson) and guys who had 5 great seasons and then flamed out (We’re think of you, Sammy Sosa) the idea that a pitcher can remain consistent for 17 years and reinvent himself as he needs to is a welcome change. For once, we don’t need to look at a guy who magically peaked and say “I wonder what that was about”? Mussina’s ability as a finesse guy who maintains his ability to throw strikes and out-think hitters is a welcome change.

This is all speculation, although you can look up the articles by the ESPN guys for some concrete evidence. But I think there’s been a big groundswell for Mussina this season that will push him over.

November 16th, 2008 | Category: News | Comments (4)

Well, the Cy Young voting came out today. Mike Mussina picked up two votes to finish 6th, although 24 of the 28 first place votes went to Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay took the others

Were there any suprises? I was suprised Dice-K picked up the 10 votes that he did. Both Ryan and I thought Mussina would finish ahead of him. Does anyone actually think Dice-K was a better pitcher in 2008 then Mussina? Have you seen their splits? Dice-K also missed a month of the season with injury.

Mariano Rivera finished ahead of Mussina, three votes to two. I can’t argue as much with that.

Really, this is about what you knew was going to happen. Every writer put Lee 1st or 2nd. Three voters left Roy Halladay off completely, which just proves that writers know nothing. On the other hand, 10 voters left K-Rod off and none of them voted for him to finish 1st.

This marks the 9th time Mussina has recieved votes for the Cy Young, and the first time since 2001. So, if nothing else, please remember this: Mussina was still the man this year.

In the end, though it’s just speculation, some of the voters might have sent in their ballots early. Cliff Lee had this thing won back in early September. He won his 20th game on September 2nd. No one else in the AL got to 19 until the season’s final week. Again, that’s just an attempt at rationalization on our part.

Next order of business: Mussina making up his mind on retirement. The deadline to file for free agency is tonight at midnight. If Mussina doesn’t file, we’re not really sure what the heck that means, but we’re efforting to find out.

Update: This article in today’s (Thursday) NY Daily News spells it out for Mussina, because it’s pretty much in his own words.  It’s a must read.  In short:  He’s still undecided, but my guess, from reading between the lines, is that perhaps he’s waiting to see what the free agent market will bring him.

November 13th, 2008 | Tags: Cliff Lee, Cy Young Award, Mariano Rivera, Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay | Category: News | Comments (7)

Posted by Rorschach

The winner of the 2008 Cy Young Award will be announced tomorrow.  Mike Mussina is in the running for a Top-5 finish.  If he gets any votes at all, it’ll be the first time he’s finished in the running since 2001 (his first season in New York).  If he can finish better then 5th, it will be his best finish since 1999.  Moose’s 2nd place finish to the un-hittable Pedro that year, is his best finish in Cy Young voting history.

The 2008 AL Cy Young will go to Cliff Lee.  We called this race back on September 2nd, when Lee won his 20th game of the season.  Lee was fantastic in every area of his game and will earn a very well deserved Cy Young award come noontime tomorrow.

The question is; how will the the rest of the voting sort itself out?  It’s a four man race for spots 2-5 between Roy Halladay, Francisco Rodriguez, Daisuke Matsuzaka (hereto known as Dice-K to avoid numerous misspellings) and Mike Mussina.

Francisco Rodriguez will finish a close second.  Lee deserves, but won’t get all of the first place votes.  K-Rod made too much news down the stretch with his pursuit of the all-time saves record.  I’ve written before that that didn’t help Bobby Thigpen much in 1990.  But that was 1990 and, well, it was Bobby Thigpen.  Rodriguez has much more name recgonition and respect within the game.  He also played for the best team in the American League during the regular season.  His pursuit was tracked nightly on Sports center.  It doesn’t matter that Mo Rivera and Joe Nathan probably had better seasons, Rodriguez got the record and the attention.  This will propel the voters to make him second.

Roy Halladay will finish third.  He won as many games as Moose and lost two more, but he was a better pitcher.  Halladay dominated the league with an amazing nine complete games, finished 2nd to Lee in ERA, 1st in WHIP, 1st in innings, 3rd in strikeouts and 1st in K/BB ratio. Halladay along with A.J. Burnett kept the Blue Jays in the wild card race long after their paltry hitting should have made the team an after thought.  Halliday is something to marvel at.  He and Cliff Lee were the two best pitchers in the American League this season.  There’s no way around it.

Mike Mussina will be in a close race with Dice-K, but will finish fourth.  Moose’s capture of the elusive 20 will give him the push to overtake Dice-K in the voting.  Mussina finished 6th in ERA, 10th in WHIP, 2nd in BB/9 and 4th in K/BB ratio.   Along with the extra boast of finally winning 20 games, voters should realize that Mussina’s pitching was the only thing that kept the Yankees competitive this season.  After Mussina’s masterful pitching the Yankees best hope was a washed up Andy Pettitte who finished 14-14 and completely faded down the stretch.  The only setback might occur if voters sent in their ballots before Mussina won his 20th game on the season’s final game or before he tore off this 3 game winning season to close the season (which also featured 16 consecutive shutout innings).

Dice-K will finish close to Mussina, but hopefully not close enough, and settle for fifth place.  Dice-K’s season is an strange statistical mix.  He finished 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, good enough for 3rd in the league.  Besides that though, there’s not much to tell.  He only finished in the top-10 of two other catergories; 1st in hits allowed per 9 and fifth in strikeouts per 9.  He also did lead the league in walks allowed.  Remember that old little league adage, “A walk is as good as a hit?”  Apparently they don’t teach that in Japan.  I don’t think anyone has ever lead the league in both walks allowed and allowed the fewest hits.

It should also be noted that Dice-K missed at least 4 or 5 stats this season because of injury.  In fact his 167.67 innings in 29 starts barely gave him the required 162 innings required to qualify for the ERA title.   John Smoltz had an eerily similiar injury-shortened but high winning percentage season in 1998.  Smoltz finished 17-3 with a 2.90 ERA.  He finished tied for 4th in the Cy Young voting with Greg Maddux.

A.J. Burnett will also garner some votes.  But his ERA is too high to be considered among the top tier canidates.  After K-Rod only Joakim Soria and Jonathon Papelbon recorded 40 saves, with 42 and 41 respectively.  Neither should receive any votes.  John Lester and Ervin Santana both pitched excellently this summer, but only ended up with 16 wins.  That’s not enough to earn votes when you have 3 guys who managed 20.

Final Picks:
Cliff Lee
Fransisco Rodriguez
Roy Halliday
Mike Mussina
Diasuke Matsuzake
A.J. Burnett

Last year there were 28 first place votes cast by the voters.  Lee will pick up 24 this year and K-Rod will steal 4.

Posted by The Moose

There is not a chance in the world that K-Rod finishes ahead of Halladay. NONE. I would bet my Mussina card collection on it. To begin with, there are so many writers/voters who consider saves to be overrated, it’s going to hurt Rodriguez. This is even more apparent now then it was in 1990. Second, most people who actually watched baseball this season know that K-Rod’s season paled in comparison to Rivera’s, Nathan’s and even Soria’s.

Lee’s going to win this thing in a relative walk. But Halladay will take some first place votes and finish in 2nd. Why? He led the league in WHIP, innings, CG, SHO, and K/BB ratio. He finished 2nd in wins and ERA, and 3rd in strikeouts. There’s no way a starting pitcher putting up those numbers will finish behind a closer. Want more proof? Brad Lidge didn’t blow a single save this year and he finished 4th.

Once we get past those two guys, it’s really semantics. They’ll take most of the 1st and 2nd place votes, and once we get below that, it’s tough to tell anyone apart. K-Rod will probably slide into third here, because a few West Coast writers will put him 2nd, and someone is bound to vote for him to finish 1st.

Now we get into Mussina vs. Dice-k. I think Mussina will finish 4th. Although his ERA is worse, he pitched the entire season. There’s also the natural 20-win bias, this time likely to work in Mussina’s favor. And as ESPN’s Keith Law said when presented with a question about why Dice-K didn’t get more love: “I guess it’s because people have actually watched him pitch this season and know he’s actually not that good.” Must be the league leading 94 walks in only 164 innings.

After Mussina and Dice-K, you’ll see Rivera, maybe Nathan, then a bunch of starters like Saunders, Burnett and Lester. But to recap the Top 5:

1. Lee
2. Halladay
3. K-Rod
4. Mussina
5. Dice-K

We’ll have a complete recap of the voting and it’s aftermath tomorrow.

In other news the Yankees have signed Damatso Marte to a three-year contact.  If you have any clue why they would do so please let us know.  This is not a good sign for how the off-season will go.

November 12th, 2008 | Tags: A.J. Burnett, Cliff Lee, Cy Young Award, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Franscisco Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, Roy Halladay | Category: Cy Young Award | Comments (10)