The Mike Mussina Hall of Fame Page

I stumbled across a fun tool on espn.com today.  It’s called Career Assessments and allows you to project the rest of a player’s career.  Now this is obviously meaningless because Mussina retired.  But if you are very bored, as I was, you can project Mussina’s career had he chosen to make a run at 300 wins.  James system allows you to find these things out.  From espn.com:

Bill James invented Career Assessments as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less than 1.5 seasons, and it is determined using the player’s age on June 30 of the previous year. If the player is a catcher, his remaining seasons are multiplied by 0.7. Using the established norms and years remaining, the final total is projected, and the chance to reach that total can be derived. No player can have more than a 97-percent chance to reach any goal.

I input Mussina’s numbers in the projection machine, waited for it spin up and it spit out some interesting information. 

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 1.5 more years, at an average of 14.5 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 291 for his career. He has a 22 percent chance to reach 300.

If Mussina had chose to stay and pursue 300 victories, his chances stood at an unencouraging 1 in 4.  But then again what are the chances of a 39 year old pitcher winning 20 games? 

You can see that projection here or check out his chances for 3,000 strikeouts.  Try not to get sucked into the projection machine’s vortex trying to figure out Joba’s chances at 300 wins or Jeter’s chances at 4000 hits.

September 23rd, 2009 | Tags: Bill James, Derek Jeter, Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina | Category: Analysis, Random Fun, Statistics | Leave a comment

We spent a lot of time on this site analyzing Mike Mussina’s career, and if he’d done enough to make Cooperstown. Through it all, while we believe he’s worthy of the honor now, we knew that the voters might have needed another year or two; another twenty wins; another 200 strikeouts.

We wondered if Mussina made the right decision to retire.

And after watching the Yankees pound the Red Sox and John Smoltz Thursday night, here’s what I can say: I’m glad that wasn’t Mike Mussina.

This is not about bashing John Smoltz. I happen to think he’s a Hall of Famer, and he, like all athletes, has a right to end his career when he chooses. And Smoltz was coming off of shoulder surgery.

But that doesn’t change the reality of the results. Smoltz has been awful for the Red Sox. He’s got an 8.23 ERA and left-handed hitters are hitting nearly .450 against him.

Simply put, he held on one year too long.

As a Yankees fan, I never got to see much of Smoltz except in the World Series in 1996 and 1999. But he was a phenominal pitcher. And, even though I wanted the Yankees to win Thursday, I couldn’t help but think that a guy like Smoltz deserved better. He deserved to go out pitching well. Not getting battered around in the third inning. It’s possible that, for his final confrontation on the mound, John Smoltz had to issue an intentional walk to load the bases after giving up five hits in the inning. It’s simply not how he should be remembered.

Mike Mussina ended his career with 16 straight scoreless innings. The final batter he faced was the eventual MVP of the American League, Dustin Pedroia. Mussina got a double play ground out.

While we may always wonder what might have been had Mussina hung on for another two or three seasons–especially if he doesn’t make the Hall–part of me is glad his career ended the way it did. With smiles and handshakes. With a celebration.

That same part of me wishes John Smoltz could get one final return to the mound, to finish his career in a manner more fitting a player of his stature. I don’t know if he’ll get that chance, but we can always hope.

As for Mike Mussina? Maybe, once again, he proved he knows more than we do.

August 8th, 2009 | Category: News | Comments (1)

Call me a hater if you must, but when I saw that Mike Mussina was at Old-Timers day at Yankee Stadium, I was a little disappointed.

I know that OTD is supposed to be a celebration of Yankees from the past, and that’s  the problem. Mike Mussina’s not from the “past”. He’s a guy who could probably pitch for the Yankees tomorrow if things went haywire. Rigt now, he’d probably be the third best starter on the team.

I’m not trying to be a fly in the ointment. I know that on some level, this is what happens, because the further we get from the glory years, the fewer options there are to bring back players who had an impact on the franchise. Many of them are gone.

I’m not blaming Mussina for this. If I were a player and I were asked back, I’d go. I just wish they hadn’t asked.

To have Mussina there seems odd. We’ve pointed out he was the last Yankee to win a World Series game. But do you realize that he was the last Yankee pitcher to beat the Red Sox? I can’t tell if that’s funny or depressing.

And now he’s an Old-Timer? I don’t like it.

This doesn’t have anything to do with talent. Not every player who comes back is a Hall of Famer. I’ve seen Kevin Maas at a recent game. But part of the fun off bringing a guy like Maas back is that when you see him, you think “Man, Kevin Maas. Those first 30 games in 1990 were something! What’s he been up to?” In a sense, his obscurity is the reason he’s back. He’s the answer to a trivia question, a quirky piece of nostalgia in an otherwise dark era. Think Shane Spencer, sans the rings. If you were a Yankees fan in the early 90’s, for a few weeks, you loved Maas, and having him back there is an excuse to think back to when he was the next big thing.

The problem is, we haven’t been given a chance to appreciate Mussina in that way. Nine months ago, we weren’t even sure he was retired. Now we’re supposed to look back with fondness? It’s like the saying goes “How can I miss you if you don’t go away?”

July 20th, 2009 | Category: News | Leave a comment

Considering that Mussina retired 8 months ago is it too much to hope that his official website might be updated to reflect this? The site’s rather well designed front page still reads:

As a starting pitcher with the New York Yankees, “Moose” has proven himself to be a committed and dedicated team leader.  With over 235 career victories, 6 Gold Gloves, Mike is one of today’s biggest stars.

Despite that fact that it does say “over 235 career victories” this obviously needs a bit of fixing.  In particular we demand full recognization for the gold glove Mussina won last year.

Patrick and I will glady volunteer to update and maintain the official Mike Mussina site if anyone cares to ask us.

In other news the State of Pennsylvania honored Mussina with a resolution on June 3rd.  Thanks to reader Jenny for this neat little link.  Check out the resolution for a great history of Mussina’s high school sporting accomplishments and some interesting facts about his life in PA.

Lastly, for some reason I can’t decipher, Mike Mussina’s baseball-reference page has not been updated to reflect his most similiar players post-2008.  The list is the same as it was when 2008 began.  It includes pitchers (with the exception of Jim Palmer) who won around 250 games and therefore were similar to Moose after 2007.  Now the list is still pretty nice as it includes five hall of famers in the top nine and a very strong candidate in Curt Schilling at number 3.  However it also lists David Wells at number 2, despite Mussina’s 31 career win advantage.

Jack Morris and Andy Pettitte, two boderline Hall of Fame candidates also make the list.  I argued for Morris in December and his vote percantage this year was a decent 44% good enough for 6th (only 0.5% behind Lee Smith).  Petitte is still writing his resume at 37 with 222 career wins and a nice bounce-back year (7-3 104ERA+)  Petitte has averaged 17 wins per season during his career and even giving him an age-reduced average of 14-15 could be at 260+ wins in two and half more years.  Throw in the fact that’s he a lefty and there’s no reason he can’t play beyond 2011 if he stays healthy and wants to play (think Jamie Moyer, Kenny Rogers or Randy Johnson who only had 200 wins at Petitte’s age!).  If Andy does that he’s almost certainly Cooperstown bound with 275 or more wins.  Now of course a lot of that depends on his effectiveness and who he’s playing for as the Yankees are unlikely to continue to employee him for many years to come.  I could certainly see a trip to LA and Mr. Torre in his future.  But enough about Andy.

The point here is that with a little bit of consistency and legacy from Andy Petitte, Mike Mussina could have 8 of his most 10 similiar pitchers elected to the hall of fame (though obviously only 6 or 7 might be in the hall before him).

Now consider that this is of course actually based on Mike Mussina of 2007, before he won 20 games in 2008.  If and when baseball-reference updates Mussina’s similarity scores, we’ll probably see 7 or 8 present or inevitable hall of famers included.

June 21st, 2009 | Tags: Andy Petitte, Curt Schilling, Jack Morris, Mike Mussina | Category: Analysis, Comparisons, Hall of Fame, Statistics | Leave a comment

We can all look forward to the winter of 2013 when Mussina will again make headlines.  The hall of fame class of 2014 will be debated and analized to a great extent.   The elections will be made public during the first week of Janaury 2014.  It’s going to be an amazing contending class.  The headliners will be:

Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, Jim Edmonds, Jeff Kent, Luis Gonzalez, Kenny Rogers, Ray Durham, Moises Alou, Eric Gagne and Hideo Nomo

That list does not include Tom Glavine and John Smoltz who haven’t played this year because of injury and therefore may also be eligible for election.  (Full Disclosure:  I also did not list Richie Sexson as a headliner.  This is despite his potential claim to be the tallest member of the baseball hall of fame)

Maddux and Thomas are in, in 2014 without question. It’s unlikely Mussina will be first ballot guy with all that other competition.  Clear arguments could be made that Pedro and Glavine are also first ballot hall of famer members. Throw in all the players from the previous few years (2013 will be another amazing year with the likes of Clemens, Bonds, Biggio, Sosa, Piazza, Lofton and Julio Franco) and you can see how difficult it will be to get 75%.

The voters haven’t elected 3 players at the same time since 1999 (Ryan, Brett and Yount).  Four players haven’t been elected together since 1947 (Carl Hubbell, Frankie Frisch, Mickey Cochrane and Lefty Grove).

Mike Mussina is not going into the hall of fame in 2014.  He’ll get there, but he’ll have to wait.  It would help if Glavine somehow manages to pitch for the Braves this year.  Or if Pedro realizes he’s not a 10 million dollar a year pitcher any more and decides to sign with Florida.

Thank you again for visiting mussinahof.com.  Browse at your pleasure.  We’ll see you again soon, in Cooperstown…someday.

May 8th, 2009 | Tags: Curt Schilling, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Pedro Martinez, Richie Sexton, Tom Glavine | Category: Hall of Fame, News | Comments (1)

Dawson and Blyleven came very close.  Blyleven’s likely election in two or three years will help Mussina tremendously.  I was correct back in July when I took at look at this year’s ballot.  I don’t know about the coming years though.  Time will tell.

Here’s an early look at Henderson’s HOF plaque.

This is the 2009 vote totals. The Tim Raines number is an embaressment.

Analysis coming tomorrow if I can stir Pat to help.

January 13th, 2009 | Tags: Andre Dawson, Baseball Hall of Fame, Burt Blyleven, Jim Rice, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines | Category: News | Comments (2)

Happy 2009 Moose fans!

RealClearSports has named Mike Mussina one of its most under-told stories of the year. The writer acknowledges Moose’s fantastic 2008 season and says he’s a sure-fire hall of famer.  But the focus of the article is how amazing Moose’s career has been and how remarkable his retirement was (coming after arguably his best season):

Mussina, on the other hand, never had to fight drug addiction. Nor has he ever struggled to remember anything — let alone an entire year. He’s not amazing because he’s had to fight back from enormous adversity of his own making. He’s amazing for the opposite reason. He’s amazing because his potential isn’t limited by a baseball field. (ie How many athletes other than Mussina would feel comfortable being featured alongside a president in a documentary about crossword puzzles?)

We could not agree more.  Read the whole thing.

January 5th, 2009 | Tags: 2008, Mike Mussina, retirement | Category: News | Comments (1)